> MATCH.PREDICT()·Italy: Serie A·Sunday 24 May, 13:00 UTC
Parma vs Sassuolo
Bawler runs a Poisson model on rolling xG, normalised across leagues, adjusted for venue and injuries. This page shows the full chain — every number you can see is one we used.
Why the model calls it this way
Over 1.5 Goals at 80% offers strong value given balanced possession and both sides' mid-table desperation for points.
▲End-of-season stakes
Home
Parma
Nothing to play for
14th · 1 left
Model nudged xG by −5% for motivation
Away
Sassuolo
Nothing to play for
11th · 1 left
Model nudged xG by −5% for motivation
Win probability
33.1% home34.3% draw32.6% away
xG chain — base → adjustments → final λ
ParmastepSassuolo
1.11Base xG · rolling 26-match1.23
× 1.08Home advantage · Home× 0.96
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
1.20Final λ — what the Poisson uses1.18
Scoreline distribution · P(score) %bivariate Poisson
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0
9
11
6
3
1
1
11
13
8
3
1
2
7
8
5
2
1
3
3
3
2
1
4
1
1
1
5
6
home windrawaway win
> More predictions for these teams
⚡ Full-time recap available
Parma 1–0 Sassuolo
See how the model called it · pick-by-pick verdict · xG vs actual →
Statistical analysis for entertainment · Not betting advice · Model estimates, not guaranteed outcomes · 18+