FT · Italy: Serie A · Sunday, 24 May 2026
Parma 1–0 SassuoloMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Sunday, 24 May 2026
> Model verdict
✗ Result against the lean
Pre-match, Bawler had Parma at 33%, draw at 34%, Sassuolo at 33%. Against expectation, the match finished 1-0. The model's headline call was a draw.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Parma win
33%
Actual ✓
Draw
34%
Sassuolo win
33%
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.20 – 1.18
Total 2.38
Actual
1 – 0
Total 1 (-1.4 vs xG)
Match underperformed xG by 1.4 goals. Below-expectation scoring — could be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping, or low-quality chances the model over-rated.
> Bawler's picks · how they landed
Banker
Over 1.5 Goals
Pre-match: 80%
✗ Lost
Value
Over 2.5 Goals
Pre-match: 52%
✗ Lost
Dark Horse
Draw
Pre-match: 29%
✗ Lost
> What we said pre-match
"Over 1.5 Goals at 80% offers strong value given balanced possession and both sides' mid-table desperation for points."