> MATCH.PREDICT()·USA: MLS·Saturday 16 May, 23:30 UTC
Philadelphia Union vs Columbus Crew
Bawler runs a Poisson model on rolling xG, normalised across leagues, adjusted for venue and injuries. This page shows the full chain — every number you can see is one we used.
Why the model calls it this way
Columbus' balanced xG (1.25) matches Philadelphia's slight edge (1.31), but the draw's 33% probability and X2 at 81% confidence makes backing the away team's resilience the sharpest angle.
Win probability
35.0% home32.9% draw32.1% away
xG chain — base → adjustments → final λ
Philadelphia UnionstepColumbus Crew
1.21Base xG · rolling 26-match1.29
× 1.08Home advantage · Home× 0.96
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
1.31Final λ — what the Poisson uses1.25
Scoreline distribution · P(score) %bivariate Poisson
0
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6
0
8
10
6
3
1
1
10
13
8
3
1
2
7
8
5
2
1
3
3
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2
1
4
1
1
1
5
6
home windrawaway win
> More predictions for these teams
⚡ Full-time recap available
Philadelphia Union 1–1 Columbus Crew
See how the model called it · pick-by-pick verdict · xG vs actual →
Statistical analysis for entertainment · Not betting advice · Model estimates, not guaranteed outcomes · 18+