FT · USA: MLS · Sunday, 17 May 2026
Philadelphia Union 1–1 Columbus CrewMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Sunday, 17 May 2026
> Model verdict
✗ Result against the lean
Pre-match, Bawler had Philadelphia Union at 35%, draw at 33%, Columbus Crew at 32%. Against expectation, the match finished 1-1. The model's headline call was Philadelphia Union to win.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Union win
35%
Draw
33%
Actual ✓
Crew win
32%
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.31 – 1.25
Total 2.55
Actual
1 – 1
Total 2 (-0.6 vs xG)
Total goals landed close to the model's expectation — within 0.6 of forecast. Suggests this match played to the underlying xG balance.
> Bawler's picks · how they landed
Banker
X2
Pre-match: 81%
✓ Won
Value
BTTS Yes
Pre-match: 52%
✓ Won
Dark Horse
Over 3.5 Goals
Pre-match: 24%
✗ Lost
Bawl Out✗ Lost@ 2.97x
- Over 1.5 Goals✓
- 1X✓
- Over 8.5 Corners✗
> What we said pre-match
"Columbus' balanced xG (1.25) matches Philadelphia's slight edge (1.31), but the draw's 33% probability and X2 at 81% confidence makes backing the away team's resilience the sharpest angle."