> MATCH.PREDICT()·Italy: Serie A·Sunday 17 May, 10:00 UTC
Pisa vs Napoli
Bawler runs a Poisson model on rolling xG, normalised across leagues, adjusted for venue and injuries. This page shows the full chain — every number you can see is one we used.
Why the model calls it this way
Napoli's superior motivation in title race combined with minimal xG gap (1.32 vs 1.11) makes Draw/Napoli Win the dominant play at 72% combined probability.
Win probability
28.2% home33.6% draw38.2% away
xG chain — base → adjustments → final λ
PisastepNapoli
1.03Base xG · rolling 26-match1.38
× 1.08Home advantage · Home× 0.96
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
1.11Final λ — what the Poisson uses1.32
Scoreline distribution · P(score) %bivariate Poisson
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9
12
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home windrawaway win
> More predictions for these teams
⚡ Full-time recap available
Pisa 0–3 Napoli
See how the model called it · pick-by-pick verdict · xG vs actual →
Statistical analysis for entertainment · Not betting advice · Model estimates, not guaranteed outcomes · 18+