FT · Italy: Serie A · Sunday, 17 May 2026
Pisa 0–3 NapoliMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Sunday, 17 May 2026
> Model verdict
✓ Model called it
Pre-match, Bawler had Pisa at 28%, draw at 34%, Napoli at 38%. The match ended 0-3 — confirming the model's lean toward Napoli.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Pisa win
28%
Draw
34%
Napoli win
38%
Actual ✓
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.11 – 1.32
Total 2.43
Actual
0 – 3
Total 3 (+0.6 vs xG)
Total goals landed close to the model's expectation — within 0.6 of forecast. Suggests this match played to the underlying xG balance.
> Bawler's picks · how they landed
Banker
X2
Pre-match: 78%
✓ Won
Value
BTTS No
Pre-match: 53%
✓ Won
Dark Horse
Home Win
Pre-match: 28%
✗ Lost
Bawl Out✗ Lost@ 2.28x
- X2✓
- Over 7.5 SOT✗
- Under 10.5 Corners✓
> What we said pre-match
"Napoli's superior motivation in title race combined with minimal xG gap (1.32 vs 1.11) makes Draw/Napoli Win the dominant play at 72% combined probability."