> MATCH.PREDICT()·USA: MLS·Sunday 24 May, 01:30 UTC
Portland Timbers vs San Jose Earthquakes
Bawler runs a Poisson model on rolling xG, normalised across leagues, adjusted for venue and injuries. This page shows the full chain — every number you can see is one we used.
Why the model calls it this way
San Jose's 47% win probability and dominant 1.94 xG edge makes Away Win the superior value against Portland's anemic 1.42 expected output.
Win probability
26.0% home26.9% draw47.0% away
xG chain — base → adjustments → final λ
Portland TimbersstepSan Jose Earthquakes
1.31Base xG · rolling 26-match2.01
× 1.08Home advantage · Home× 0.96
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
1.42Final λ — what the Poisson uses1.94
Scoreline distribution · P(score) %bivariate Poisson
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7
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home windrawaway win
BAWL OUTPro
Over 1.5 Goals + Over 22.5 Shots + X2 + Over 8.5 Corners
Model 32.8% · @ 3.05x
Take this pick →> More predictions for these teams
⚡ Full-time recap available
Portland Timbers 1–3 San Jose Earthquakes
See how the model called it · pick-by-pick verdict · xG vs actual →
Statistical analysis for entertainment · Not betting advice · Model estimates, not guaranteed outcomes · 18+