FT · USA: MLS · Sunday, 24 May 2026
Portland Timbers 1–3 San Jose EarthquakesMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Sunday, 24 May 2026
> Model verdict
✓ Model called it
Pre-match, Bawler had Portland Timbers at 26%, draw at 27%, San Jose Earthquakes at 47%. The match ended 1-3 — confirming the model's lean toward San Jose Earthquakes.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Timbers win
26%
Draw
27%
Earthquakes win
47%
Actual ✓
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.42 – 1.94
Total 3.35
Actual
1 – 3
Total 4 (+0.6 vs xG)
Match overperformed xG by 0.6 goals. Above-expectation scoring — could be finishing, set-piece luck, or genuine attacking quality the model under-rated.
> Bawler's picks · how they landed
Banker
Over 1.5 Goals
Pre-match: 86%
✓ Won
Value
Away Win
Pre-match: 46%
✓ Won
Dark Horse
Draw
Pre-match: 25%
✗ Lost
Bawl Out✗ Lost@ 3.05x
- Over 1.5 Goals✓
- Over 22.5 Shots✗
- X2✓
- Over 8.5 Corners✓
> What we said pre-match
"San Jose's 47% win probability and dominant 1.94 xG edge makes Away Win the superior value against Portland's anemic 1.42 expected output."