> MATCH.PREDICT()·USA: MLS·Sunday 10 May, 02:30 UTC
Portland Timbers vs Sporting Kansas City
Bawler runs a Poisson model on rolling xG, normalised across leagues, adjusted for venue and injuries. This page shows the full chain — every number you can see is one we used.
Win probability
76.8% home13.9% draw9.2% away
xG chain — base → adjustments → final λ
Portland TimbersstepSporting Kansas City
3.24Base xG · rolling 26-match1.34
× 1.08Home advantage · Home× 0.96
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
3.50Final λ — what the Poisson uses1.29
Scoreline distribution · P(score) %bivariate Poisson
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home windrawaway win
> More predictions for these teams
⚡ Full-time recap available
Portland Timbers 6–0 Sporting Kansas City
See how the model called it · pick-by-pick verdict · xG vs actual →
Statistical analysis for entertainment · Not betting advice · Model estimates, not guaranteed outcomes · 18+