FT · USA: MLS · Sunday, 10 May 2026
Portland Timbers 6–0 Sporting Kansas CityMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Sunday, 10 May 2026
> Model verdict
✓ Model called it
Pre-match, Bawler had Portland Timbers at 77%, draw at 14%, Sporting Kansas City at 9%. The match ended 6-0 — confirming the model's lean toward Portland Timbers.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Timbers win
77%
Actual ✓
Draw
14%
City win
9%
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
3.50 – 1.29
Total 4.79
Actual
6 – 0
Total 6 (+1.2 vs xG)
Match overperformed xG by 1.2 goals. Above-expectation scoring — could be finishing, set-piece luck, or genuine attacking quality the model under-rated.
> Bawler's picks · how they landed
Banker
Over 1.5 Goals
Pre-match: 88%
✓ Won
Value
BTTS No
Pre-match: 35%
✓ Won
Dark Horse
X2
Pre-match: 29%
✗ Lost
Bawl Out✗ Lost@ 2.44x
- Home Win✓
- BTTS Yes✗
- Under 10.5 Corners✓