> MATCH.PREDICT()·FRANCE: Ligue 1·Saturday 02 May, 15:00 UTC
PSG vs Lorient
Bawler runs a Poisson model on rolling xG, normalised across leagues, adjusted for venue and injuries. This page shows the full chain — every number you can see is one we used.
Win probability
78.4% home14.9% draw6.7% away
xG chain — base → adjustments → final λ
PSGstepLorient
2.53Base xG · rolling 26-match0.71
× 1.08Home advantage · Home× 0.96
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
2.73Final λ — what the Poisson uses0.69
Scoreline distribution · P(score) %bivariate Poisson
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0
3
2
1
1
9
6
2
2
12
8
3
1
3
11
8
3
1
4
8
5
2
5
4
3
1
6
2
1
home windrawaway win
BAWL OUTPro
Home Win + Over 8.5 Corners + Over 7.5 SOT + Over 2.5 Goals
Model 32.3% · @ 3.09x
Take this pick →> More predictions for these teams
⚡ Full-time recap available
PSG 2–2 Lorient
See how the model called it · pick-by-pick verdict · xG vs actual →
Statistical analysis for entertainment · Not betting advice · Model estimates, not guaranteed outcomes · 18+