FT · FRANCE: Ligue 1 · Saturday, 02 May 2026
PSG 2–2 LorientMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Saturday, 02 May 2026
> Model verdict
✗ Result against the lean
Pre-match, Bawler had PSG at 78%, draw at 15%, Lorient at 7%. Against expectation, the match finished 2-2. The model's headline call was PSG to win.
> Pre-match probability vs result
PSG win
78%
Draw
15%
Actual ✓
Lorient win
7%
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
2.73 – 0.69
Total 3.42
Actual
2 – 2
Total 4 (+0.6 vs xG)
Total goals landed close to the model's expectation — within 0.6 of forecast. Suggests this match played to the underlying xG balance.
> Bawler's picks · how they landed
Banker
1X
Pre-match: 93%
✓ Won
Value
BTTS No
Pre-match: 54%
✗ Lost
Dark Horse
X2
Pre-match: 22%
✓ Won
Bawl Out✗ Lost@ 3.09x
- Home Win✗
- Over 8.5 Corners✓
- Over 7.5 SOT✓
- Over 2.5 Goals✓