> MATCH.PREDICT()·Belgium: Pro League·Sunday 10 May, 17:15 UTC
Racing Genk vs KVC Westerlo
Bawler runs a Poisson model on rolling xG, normalised across leagues, adjusted for venue and injuries. This page shows the full chain — every number you can see is one we used.
Win probability
47.9% home25.1% draw27.1% away
xG chain — base → adjustments → final λ
Racing GenkstepKVC Westerlo
1.98Base xG · rolling 26-match1.66
× 1.08Home advantage · Home× 0.96
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
2.14Final λ — what the Poisson uses1.60
Scoreline distribution · P(score) %bivariate Poisson
0
1
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6
0
2
4
3
2
1
1
5
8
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3
1
2
5
9
7
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1
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6
5
3
1
4
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3
1
1
5
1
1
1
1
6
1
home windrawaway win
> More predictions for these teams
⚡ Full-time recap available
Racing Genk 3–0 KVC Westerlo
See how the model called it · pick-by-pick verdict · xG vs actual →
Statistical analysis for entertainment · Not betting advice · Model estimates, not guaranteed outcomes · 18+