FT · Belgium: Pro League · Sunday, 10 May 2026

Racing Genk 30 KVC WesterloMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Sunday, 10 May 2026

Racing Genk
30
Racing Genk win
KVC Westerlo
> Model verdict
✓ Model called it

Pre-match, Bawler had Racing Genk at 48%, draw at 25%, KVC Westerlo at 27%. The match ended 3-0 — confirming the model's lean toward Racing Genk.

> Pre-match probability vs result
Genk win
48%
Actual ✓
Draw
25%
Westerlo win
27%
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
2.141.60
Total 3.74
Actual
30
Total 3 (-0.7 vs xG)

Match underperformed xG by 0.7 goals. Below-expectation scoring — could be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping, or low-quality chances the model over-rated.

> Bawler's picks · how they landed
Banker
Over 1.5 Goals
Pre-match: 82%
✓ Won
Value
Home Win
Pre-match: 49%
✓ Won
Dark Horse
Draw
Pre-match: 24%
✗ Lost
Bawl Out✗ Lost@ 2.30x
  • Over 9.5 Corners
  • Over 2.5 Goals
  • 1X

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