> MATCH.PREDICT()·SCOTLAND: Premiership - Championship Group·Sunday 26 Apr, 14:00 UTC
Rangers vs Motherwell
Bawler runs a Poisson model on rolling xG, normalised across leagues, adjusted for venue and injuries. This page shows the full chain — every number you can see is one we used.
Win probability
46.4% home25.8% draw27.8% away
xG chain — base → adjustments → final λ
RangersstepMotherwell
1.50Base xG · rolling 26-match1.10
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
1.50Final λ — what the Poisson uses1.10
Scoreline distribution · P(score) %bivariate Poisson
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0
7
8
4
2
1
11
12
7
2
1
2
8
9
5
2
1
3
4
5
3
1
4
2
2
1
5
1
6
home windrawaway win
> More predictions for these teams
⚡ Full-time recap available
Rangers 2–3 Motherwell
See how the model called it · pick-by-pick verdict · xG vs actual →
Statistical analysis for entertainment · Not betting advice · Model estimates, not guaranteed outcomes · 18+