Bawler / SCOTLAND: Premiership / Motherwell
Team profile

Motherwell Prediction

Per-game numbers from 43 competitive matches · updated 16 August 2026

Shots
13.1
a game
11.2 faced
On target
4.8
a game
3.9 faced
Goals
1.5 – 0.9
scored – conceded
a game, 43 matches
Next match
62%
Motherwell win chance
vs Aberdeen · Sat 22 Aug 14:00

Motherwell prediction: for Motherwell's next match — Motherwell vs Aberdeen on Saturday 22 Aug, 14:00 UTC — Bawler's model makes it a Motherwell win looks most likely (62%).

Motherwell sit close to the Premiership average on both sides of the ball, creating 1.25 expected goals a game and conceding 1.37. They are unbeaten across their last 5 settled matches. Next up is Aberdeen, where the model makes them clear favourites at 62%.

Motherwell in numbers

43 competitive matches · friendlies excluded
1.5
Goals · per game
let in 0.9
Home 1.6Away 1.4
3.8
Corners · per game
give up 4.4
Home 3.7Away 3.9
13.1
Shots · per game
faced 11.2
Home 14.1Away 12.1
4.8
On target · per game
faced 3.9
Home 5.3Away 4.3
Last 6 games
16 Aug
0-1
@ Stenhousemuir
8-8
13 Aug
2-0
vs HJK Helsinki
3-7
09 Aug
0-0
vs Falkirk
2-2
06 Aug
1-1
@ HJK Helsinki
3-5
02 Aug
2-1
@ Hibernian
2-9
16 May
1-0
@ Hibernian
4-7

Real counted numbers, updated daily · see them working on today's predictions →

Next match

Home vs Aberdeen · Saturday 22 Aug, 14:00 UTC

Win
62%
Motherwell
Draw
27%
Loss
12%
Aberdeen
Full match preview

Attack vs defence

How Motherwell compare with the SCOTLAND: Premiership average, per match.

Goals for
1.25
Below average
Goals against
1.37
Tighter than most
Record
2W 3D 0L
5 settled
Real goals
1.2 – 0.6
For / against, per match
Scored1.25
Conceded1.37

The grey line on each bar is the SCOTLAND: Premiership average (1.34 scored, 1.40 conceded).

What the data says
Model is strongest on: Result
High-confidence calls in this market are correct 100% of the time on Motherwell fixtures (3/3).

How Bawler has done on Motherwell

60%
of high-confidence calls correct — 3 of 5
Result100%3/3

Each row is one market type. Every prediction logged before kickoff, settled publicly.

Recent matches (last 5)

Thu 13 Augvs HJK Helsinki
High confidence: Motherwell or Draw
Sun 09 Augvs Falkirk
High confidence: 1X
Thu 06 Aug@ HJK Helsinki
High confidence: HJK Helsinki or Draw
Sun 26 Apr@ Rangers
High confidence: Rangers or Draw (Double Chance)
Sat 21 Marvs Hibernian
High confidence: Over 1.5 Goals

Transfer activity

INAlex PaulsenGKfrom AFC BournemouthLoan
INJake Girdwood-ReichCBfrom St. Louis City€600k
INJamie Knight-LebelCBfrom Bristol CityLoan
INJoe HodgeCMfrom TondelaUndisclosed
INDylan WilliamsDMfrom Burton AlbionUndisclosed
INAlex LowryAMfrom Wycombe WanderersLoan
INMartin MoormannCBfrom BW LinzFree transfer
INWilly VogtSTfrom BellinzonaUndisclosed
OUTElijah JustAMto Swansea City€5.9m
OUTElliot WattDMto SamsunsporUndisclosed
OUTCalum WardGKto Queens Park Rangers€750k
OUTCallum SlatteryAMto Sheffield WednesdayFree transfer
OUTDylan WellsRWto LinfieldFree transfer
OUTAston OxboroughGKto Dunfermline AthleticUndisclosed
OUTLiam GordonCBto GillinghamFree transfer
OUTSam NicholsonCMto LivingstonFree transfer

Confirmed deals only. All transfers and what they mean for our predictions →

More on Motherwell and the model

Model estimates from rolling expected goals · every prediction logged before kickoff and settled publicly