FT · SCOTLAND: Premiership - Championship Group · Sunday, 26 April 2026
Rangers 2–3 MotherwellMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Sunday, 26 April 2026
> Model verdict
✗ Result against the lean
Pre-match, Bawler had Rangers at 46%, draw at 26%, Motherwell at 28%. Against expectation, the match finished 2-3. The model's headline call was Rangers to win.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Rangers win
46%
Draw
26%
Motherwell win
28%
Actual ✓
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.50 – 1.10
Total 2.60
Actual
2 – 3
Total 5 (+2.4 vs xG)
Match overperformed xG by 2.4 goals. Above-expectation scoring — could be finishing, set-piece luck, or genuine attacking quality the model under-rated.
> Bawler's picks · how they landed
Banker
Rangers or Draw (Double Chance)
Pre-match: 72%
✗ Lost
Value
BTTS Yes
Pre-match: 52%
✓ Won
Dark Horse
Draw
Pre-match: 26%
✗ Lost