> MATCH.PREDICT()·EUROPE: Conference League - Play Offs·Thursday 30 Apr, 19:00 UTC
Rayo Vallecano vs Strasbourg
Bawler runs a Poisson model on rolling xG, normalised across leagues, adjusted for venue and injuries. This page shows the full chain — every number you can see is one we used.
Win probability
38.4% home27.8% draw33.8% away
xG chain — base → adjustments → final λ
Rayo VallecanostepStrasbourg
1.45Base xG · rolling 26-match1.51
× 1.08Home advantage · Home× 0.96
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
1.56Final λ — what the Poisson uses1.45
Scoreline distribution · P(score) %bivariate Poisson
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0
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7
5
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1
1
8
11
8
4
1
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6
9
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3
5
3
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1
4
1
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1
1
5
1
6
home windrawaway win
BAWL OUTPro
1X + Over 7.5 Corners + Over 7.5 SOT + Over 2.5 Goals
Model 11.2% · @ 8.91x
Take this pick →> More predictions for these teams
⚡ Full-time recap available
Rayo Vallecano 1–0 Strasbourg
See how the model called it · pick-by-pick verdict · xG vs actual →
Statistical analysis for entertainment · Not betting advice · Model estimates, not guaranteed outcomes · 18+