FT · EUROPE: Conference League - Play Offs · Thursday, 30 April 2026
Rayo Vallecano 1–0 StrasbourgMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Thursday, 30 April 2026
> Model verdict
✓ Model called it
Pre-match, Bawler had Rayo Vallecano at 38%, draw at 28%, Strasbourg at 34%. The match ended 1-0 — confirming the model's lean toward Rayo Vallecano.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Vallecano win
38%
Actual ✓
Draw
28%
Strasbourg win
34%
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.56 – 1.45
Total 3.02
Actual
1 – 0
Total 1 (-2.0 vs xG)
Match underperformed xG by 2.0 goals. Below-expectation scoring — could be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping, or low-quality chances the model over-rated.
> Bawler's picks · how they landed
Banker
Over 1.5 Goals
Pre-match: 80%
✗ Lost
Value
Under 2.5 Goals
Pre-match: 42%
✓ Won
Dark Horse
Draw
Pre-match: 28%
✗ Lost
Bawl Out✗ Lost@ 8.91x
- 1X✓
- Over 7.5 Corners✗
- Over 7.5 SOT✓
- Over 2.5 Goals✗