> MATCH.PREDICT()·Germany: Bundesliga·Saturday 09 May, 13:30 UTC
RB Leipzig vs St. Pauli
Bawler runs a Poisson model on rolling xG, normalised across leagues, adjusted for venue and injuries. This page shows the full chain — every number you can see is one we used.
Win probability
60.0% home22.4% draw17.7% away
xG chain — base → adjustments → final λ
RB LeipzigstepSt. Pauli
2.27Base xG · rolling 26-match1.36
× 1.08Home advantage · Home× 0.96
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
2.45Final λ — what the Poisson uses1.31
Scoreline distribution · P(score) %bivariate Poisson
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home windrawaway win
BAWL OUTPro
Over 8.5 SOT + 1X + Over 2.5 Goals + Over 10.5 Corners
Model 40.4% · @ 2.48x
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RB Leipzig 2–1 St. Pauli
See how the model called it · pick-by-pick verdict · xG vs actual →
Statistical analysis for entertainment · Not betting advice · Model estimates, not guaranteed outcomes · 18+