FT · Germany: Bundesliga · Saturday, 09 May 2026
RB Leipzig 2–1 St. PauliMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Saturday, 09 May 2026
> Model verdict
✓ Model called it
Pre-match, Bawler had RB Leipzig at 60%, draw at 22%, St. Pauli at 18%. The match ended 2-1 — confirming the model's lean toward RB Leipzig.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Leipzig win
60%
Actual ✓
Draw
22%
Pauli win
18%
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
2.45 – 1.31
Total 3.76
Actual
2 – 1
Total 3 (-0.8 vs xG)
Match underperformed xG by 0.8 goals. Below-expectation scoring — could be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping, or low-quality chances the model over-rated.
> Bawler's picks · how they landed
Banker
Over 1.5 Goals
Pre-match: 82%
✓ Won
Value
Over 3.5 Goals
Pre-match: 46%
✗ Lost
Dark Horse
Draw
Pre-match: 22%
✗ Lost
Bawl Out✗ Lost@ 2.48x
- Over 8.5 SOT✗
- 1X✓
- Over 2.5 Goals✓
- Over 10.5 Corners✗