> MATCH.PREDICT()·Spain: La Liga·Sunday 10 May, 16:30 UTC
Real Oviedo vs Getafe
Bawler runs a Poisson model on rolling xG, normalised across leagues, adjusted for venue and injuries. This page shows the full chain — every number you can see is one we used.
Win probability
37.4% home32.2% draw30.4% away
xG chain — base → adjustments → final λ
Real OviedostepGetafe
1.29Base xG · rolling 26-match1.29
× 1.08Home advantage · Home× 0.96
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
1.40Final λ — what the Poisson uses1.24
Scoreline distribution · P(score) %bivariate Poisson
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0
7
9
6
2
1
1
10
12
8
3
1
2
7
9
5
2
1
3
3
4
3
1
4
1
1
1
5
6
home windrawaway win
BAWL OUTPro
Over 8.5 Corners + Over 7.5 SOT + X2 + Over 1.5 Goals
Model 26.6% · @ 3.77x
Take this pick →> More predictions for these teams
⚡ Full-time recap available
Real Oviedo 0–0 Getafe
See how the model called it · pick-by-pick verdict · xG vs actual →
Statistical analysis for entertainment · Not betting advice · Model estimates, not guaranteed outcomes · 18+