FT · Spain: La Liga · Sunday, 10 May 2026
Real Oviedo 0–0 GetafeMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Sunday, 10 May 2026
> Model verdict
✗ Result against the lean
Pre-match, Bawler had Real Oviedo at 37%, draw at 32%, Getafe at 30%. Against expectation, the match finished 0-0. The model's headline call was Real Oviedo to win.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Oviedo win
37%
Draw
32%
Actual ✓
Getafe win
30%
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.40 – 1.24
Total 2.64
Actual
0 – 0
Total 0 (-2.6 vs xG)
Match underperformed xG by 2.6 goals. Below-expectation scoring — could be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping, or low-quality chances the model over-rated.
> Bawler's picks · how they landed
Banker
X2
Pre-match: 70%
✓ Won
Value
Under 2.5 Goals
Pre-match: 53%
✓ Won
Dark Horse
Over 3.5 Goals
Pre-match: 24%
✗ Lost
Bawl Out✗ Lost@ 3.77x
- Over 8.5 Corners✓
- Over 7.5 SOT✓
- X2✓
- Over 1.5 Goals✗