> MATCH.PREDICT()·USA: MLS·Saturday 02 May, 20:45 UTC
Real Salt Lake vs Portland Timbers
Bawler runs a Poisson model on rolling xG, normalised across leagues, adjusted for venue and injuries. This page shows the full chain — every number you can see is one we used.
Win probability
78.9% home13.7% draw7.4% away
xG chain — base → adjustments → final λ
Real Salt LakestepPortland Timbers
2.83Base xG · rolling 26-match0.91
× 1.08Home advantage · Home× 0.96
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
3.06Final λ — what the Poisson uses0.88
Scoreline distribution · P(score) %bivariate Poisson
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0
2
2
1
1
6
5
2
1
2
9
8
4
1
3
9
8
4
1
4
7
6
3
1
5
4
4
2
6
2
2
1
home windrawaway win
BAWL OUTPro
Home Win + Over 10.5 Corners + Over 7.5 SOT + Over 2.5 Goals
Model 29.9% · @ 3.34x
Take this pick →> More predictions for these teams
⚡ Full-time recap available
Real Salt Lake 2–0 Portland Timbers
See how the model called it · pick-by-pick verdict · xG vs actual →
Statistical analysis for entertainment · Not betting advice · Model estimates, not guaranteed outcomes · 18+