FT · USA: MLS · Saturday, 02 May 2026
Real Salt Lake 2–0 Portland TimbersMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Saturday, 02 May 2026
> Model verdict
✓ Model called it
Pre-match, Bawler had Real Salt Lake at 79%, draw at 14%, Portland Timbers at 7%. The match ended 2-0 — confirming the model's lean toward Real Salt Lake.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Lake win
79%
Actual ✓
Draw
14%
Timbers win
7%
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
3.06 – 0.88
Total 3.93
Actual
2 – 0
Total 2 (-1.9 vs xG)
Match underperformed xG by 1.9 goals. Below-expectation scoring — could be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping, or low-quality chances the model over-rated.
> Bawler's picks · how they landed
Banker
1X
Pre-match: 93%
✓ Won
Value
BTTS No
Pre-match: 44%
✓ Won
Dark Horse
X2
Pre-match: 21%
✗ Lost
Bawl Out✗ Lost@ 3.34x
- Home Win✓
- Over 10.5 Corners✗
- Over 7.5 SOT✓
- Over 2.5 Goals✗