> MATCH.PREDICT()·Spain: La Liga·Sunday 17 May, 17:00 UTC
Real Sociedad vs Valencia
Bawler runs a Poisson model on rolling xG, normalised across leagues, adjusted for venue and injuries. This page shows the full chain — every number you can see is one we used.
Why the model calls it this way
Real Sociedad's superior xG (1.49) and Europa motivation clash with Valencia's defensive vulnerability; back Over 1.5 Goals at 76%.
Win probability
39.5% home31.3% draw29.2% away
xG chain — base → adjustments → final λ
Real SociedadstepValencia
1.38Base xG · rolling 26-match1.30
× 1.08Home advantage · Home× 0.96
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
1.49Final λ — what the Poisson uses1.25
Scoreline distribution · P(score) %bivariate Poisson
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home windrawaway win
> More predictions for these teams
⚡ Full-time recap available
Real Sociedad 3–4 Valencia
See how the model called it · pick-by-pick verdict · xG vs actual →
Statistical analysis for entertainment · Not betting advice · Model estimates, not guaranteed outcomes · 18+