FT · Spain: La Liga · Sunday, 17 May 2026
Real Sociedad 3–4 ValenciaMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Sunday, 17 May 2026
> Model verdict
✗ Result against the lean
Pre-match, Bawler had Real Sociedad at 40%, draw at 31%, Valencia at 29%. Against expectation, the match finished 3-4. The model's headline call was Real Sociedad to win.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Sociedad win
40%
Draw
31%
Valencia win
29%
Actual ✓
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.49 – 1.25
Total 2.74
Actual
3 – 4
Total 7 (+4.3 vs xG)
Match overperformed xG by 4.3 goals. Above-expectation scoring — could be finishing, set-piece luck, or genuine attacking quality the model under-rated.
> Bawler's picks · how they landed
Banker
Over 1.5 Goals
Pre-match: 76%
✓ Won
Value
BTTS No
Pre-match: 53%
✗ Lost
Dark Horse
Over 3.5 Goals
Pre-match: 28%
✓ Won
Bawl Out✗ Lost@ 2.48x
- Over 1.5 Goals✓
- X2✓
- Over 8.5 Corners✗
> What we said pre-match
"Real Sociedad's superior xG (1.49) and Europa motivation clash with Valencia's defensive vulnerability; back Over 1.5 Goals at 76%."