> MATCH.PREDICT()·USA: MLS·Wednesday 13 May, 23:30 UTC
Red Bull New York vs Columbus Crew
Bawler runs a Poisson model on rolling xG, normalised across leagues, adjusted for venue and injuries. This page shows the full chain — every number you can see is one we used.
Why the model calls it this way
Columbus's 1.66 xG dominance and 42% win probability makes away victory the mathematically superior play despite Red Bull's home field.
Win probability
28.3% home29.5% draw42.2% away
xG chain — base → adjustments → final λ
Red Bull New YorkstepColumbus Crew
1.23Base xG · rolling 26-match1.73
× 1.08Home advantage · Home× 0.96
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
1.33Final λ — what the Poisson uses1.66
Scoreline distribution · P(score) %bivariate Poisson
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0
5
8
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7
11
9
5
2
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7
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1
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3
2
1
4
1
1
1
1
5
6
home windrawaway win
> More predictions for these teams
⚡ Full-time recap available
Red Bull New York 3–2 Columbus Crew
See how the model called it · pick-by-pick verdict · xG vs actual →
Statistical analysis for entertainment · Not betting advice · Model estimates, not guaranteed outcomes · 18+