FT · USA: MLS · Thursday, 14 May 2026
Red Bull New York 3–2 Columbus CrewMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Thursday, 14 May 2026
> Model verdict
✗ Result against the lean
Pre-match, Bawler had Red Bull New York at 28%, draw at 30%, Columbus Crew at 42%. Against expectation, the match finished 3-2. The model's headline call was Columbus Crew to win.
> Pre-match probability vs result
York win
28%
Actual ✓
Draw
30%
Crew win
42%
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.33 – 1.66
Total 2.99
Actual
3 – 2
Total 5 (+2.0 vs xG)
Match overperformed xG by 2.0 goals. Above-expectation scoring — could be finishing, set-piece luck, or genuine attacking quality the model under-rated.
> Bawler's picks · how they landed
Banker
X2
Pre-match: 88%
✗ Lost
Value
Away Win
Pre-match: 52%
✗ Lost
Dark Horse
Draw
Pre-match: 30%
✗ Lost
Bawl Out✗ Lost@ 3.23x
- Over 2.5 Goals✓
- Over 9.5 Corners✗
- Over 22.5 Shots✓
> What we said pre-match
"Columbus's 1.66 xG dominance and 42% win probability makes away victory the mathematically superior play despite Red Bull's home field."