> MATCH.PREDICT()·USA: MLS·Sunday 10 May, 02:30 UTC
San Jose Earthquakes vs Vancouver Whitecaps
Bawler runs a Poisson model on rolling xG, normalised across leagues, adjusted for venue and injuries. This page shows the full chain — every number you can see is one we used.
Win probability
53.8% home27.5% draw18.7% away
xG chain — base → adjustments → final λ
San Jose EarthquakesstepVancouver Whitecaps
1.75Base xG · rolling 26-match1.09
× 1.08Home advantage · Home× 0.96
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
1.89Final λ — what the Poisson uses1.05
Scoreline distribution · P(score) %bivariate Poisson
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0
5
6
3
1
1
10
11
6
2
1
2
9
10
5
2
3
6
6
3
1
4
3
3
2
1
5
1
1
1
6
home windrawaway win
> More predictions for these teams
⚡ Full-time recap available
San Jose Earthquakes 1–1 Vancouver Whitecaps
See how the model called it · pick-by-pick verdict · xG vs actual →
Statistical analysis for entertainment · Not betting advice · Model estimates, not guaranteed outcomes · 18+