FT · USA: MLS · Sunday, 10 May 2026
San Jose Earthquakes 1–1 Vancouver WhitecapsMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Sunday, 10 May 2026
> Model verdict
✗ Result against the lean
Pre-match, Bawler had San Jose Earthquakes at 54%, draw at 28%, Vancouver Whitecaps at 19%. Against expectation, the match finished 1-1. The model's headline call was San Jose Earthquakes to win.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Earthquakes win
54%
Draw
28%
Actual ✓
Whitecaps win
19%
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.89 – 1.05
Total 2.94
Actual
1 – 1
Total 2 (-0.9 vs xG)
Match underperformed xG by 0.9 goals. Below-expectation scoring — could be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping, or low-quality chances the model over-rated.
> Bawler's picks · how they landed
Banker
1X
Pre-match: 87%
✓ Won
Value
BTTS No
Pre-match: 53%
✗ Lost
Dark Horse
Away Win
Pre-match: 23%
✗ Lost
Bawl Out✗ Lost@ 2.39x
- Under 10.5 Corners✓
- Over 1.5 Goals✓
- Home Win✗