> MATCH.PREDICT()·Italy: Serie A·Sunday 17 May, 18:45 UTC
Sassuolo vs Lecce
Bawler runs a Poisson model on rolling xG, normalised across leagues, adjusted for venue and injuries. This page shows the full chain — every number you can see is one we used.
Why the model calls it this way
Lecce's relegation desperation combined with Sassuolo's xG edge favors 1X at 70%, offering strong value in a low-scoring affair.
Win probability
42.0% home33.6% draw24.4% away
xG chain — base → adjustments → final λ
SassuolostepLecce
1.27Base xG · rolling 26-match1.04
× 1.08Home advantage · Home× 0.96
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
1.37Final λ — what the Poisson uses1.00
Scoreline distribution · P(score) %bivariate Poisson
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0
9
9
5
2
1
13
13
6
2
1
2
9
9
4
1
3
4
4
2
1
4
1
1
1
5
6
home windrawaway win
BAWL OUTPro
Under 10.5 Corners + 1X + Over 1.5 Goals + Over 7.5 SOT
Model 19.6% · @ 5.11x
Take this pick →> More predictions for these teams
⚡ Full-time recap available
Sassuolo 2–3 Lecce
See how the model called it · pick-by-pick verdict · xG vs actual →
Statistical analysis for entertainment · Not betting advice · Model estimates, not guaranteed outcomes · 18+