FT · Italy: Serie A · Sunday, 17 May 2026
Sassuolo 2–3 LecceMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Sunday, 17 May 2026
> Model verdict
✗ Result against the lean
Pre-match, Bawler had Sassuolo at 42%, draw at 34%, Lecce at 24%. Against expectation, the match finished 2-3. The model's headline call was Sassuolo to win.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Sassuolo win
42%
Draw
34%
Lecce win
24%
Actual ✓
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.37 – 1.00
Total 2.37
Actual
2 – 3
Total 5 (+2.6 vs xG)
Match overperformed xG by 2.6 goals. Above-expectation scoring — could be finishing, set-piece luck, or genuine attacking quality the model under-rated.
> Bawler's picks · how they landed
Banker
1X
Pre-match: 70%
✗ Lost
Value
Under 2.5 Goals
Pre-match: 54%
✗ Lost
Dark Horse
Away Win
Pre-match: 27%
✓ Won
Bawl Out✗ Lost@ 5.11x
- Under 10.5 Corners✓
- 1X✗
- Over 1.5 Goals✓
- Over 7.5 SOT✓
> What we said pre-match
"Lecce's relegation desperation combined with Sassuolo's xG edge favors 1X at 70%, offering strong value in a low-scoring affair."