> MATCH.PREDICT()·Spain: La Liga·Saturday 09 May, 14:15 UTC
Sevilla vs Espanyol
Bawler runs a Poisson model on rolling xG, normalised across leagues, adjusted for venue and injuries. This page shows the full chain — every number you can see is one we used.
Win probability
36.0% home28.9% draw35.1% away
xG chain — base → adjustments → final λ
SevillastepEspanyol
1.48Base xG · rolling 26-match1.64
× 1.08Home advantage · Home× 0.96
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
1.60Final λ — what the Poisson uses1.57
Scoreline distribution · P(score) %bivariate Poisson
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0
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11
8
4
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1
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8
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home windrawaway win
BAWL OUTPro
Over 9.5 Corners + Over 1.5 Goals + X2 + Over 8.5 SOT
Model 28.0% · @ 3.58x
Take this pick →> More predictions for these teams
⚡ Full-time recap available
Sevilla 2–1 Espanyol
See how the model called it · pick-by-pick verdict · xG vs actual →
Statistical analysis for entertainment · Not betting advice · Model estimates, not guaranteed outcomes · 18+