FT · Spain: La Liga · Saturday, 09 May 2026
Sevilla 2–1 EspanyolMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Saturday, 09 May 2026
> Model verdict
✓ Model called it
Pre-match, Bawler had Sevilla at 36%, draw at 29%, Espanyol at 35%. The match ended 2-1 — confirming the model's lean toward Sevilla.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Sevilla win
36%
Actual ✓
Draw
29%
Espanyol win
35%
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.60 – 1.57
Total 3.17
Actual
2 – 1
Total 3 (-0.2 vs xG)
Total goals landed close to the model's expectation — within 0.2 of forecast. Suggests this match played to the underlying xG balance.
> Bawler's picks · how they landed
Banker
Over 1.5 Goals
Pre-match: 76%
✓ Won
Value
Under 2.5 Goals
Pre-match: 40%
✗ Lost
Dark Horse
Draw
Pre-match: 28%
✗ Lost
Bawl Out✗ Lost@ 3.58x
- Over 9.5 Corners✓
- Over 1.5 Goals✓
- X2✗
- Over 8.5 SOT✓