> MATCH.PREDICT()·ENGLAND: Championship·Saturday 02 May, 11:30 UTC
Sheffield Wed vs West Brom
Bawler runs a Poisson model on rolling xG, normalised across leagues, adjusted for venue and injuries. This page shows the full chain — every number you can see is one we used.
Win probability
11.6% home24.0% draw64.4% away
xG chain — base → adjustments → final λ
Sheffield WedstepWest Brom
0.61Base xG · rolling 26-match1.98
× 1.08Home advantage · Home× 0.96
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
0.66Final λ — what the Poisson uses1.90
Scoreline distribution · P(score) %bivariate Poisson
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0
8
15
14
9
4
2
1
1
5
10
9
6
3
1
2
2
3
3
2
1
3
1
1
4
5
6
home windrawaway win
> More predictions for these teams
⚡ Full-time recap available
Sheffield Wed 2–1 West Brom
See how the model called it · pick-by-pick verdict · xG vs actual →
Statistical analysis for entertainment · Not betting advice · Model estimates, not guaranteed outcomes · 18+