FT · ENGLAND: Championship · Saturday, 02 May 2026

Sheffield Wed 21 West BromMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Saturday, 02 May 2026

Sheffield Wed
21
Sheffield Wed win
West Brom
> Model verdict
✗ Result against the lean

Pre-match, Bawler had Sheffield Wed at 12%, draw at 24%, West Brom at 64%. Against expectation, the match finished 2-1. The model's headline call was West Brom to win.

> Pre-match probability vs result
Wed win
12%
Actual ✓
Draw
24%
Brom win
64%
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
0.661.90
Total 2.56
Actual
21
Total 3 (+0.4 vs xG)

Total goals landed close to the model's expectation — within 0.4 of forecast. Suggests this match played to the underlying xG balance.

> Bawler's picks · how they landed
Banker
X2
Pre-match: 88%
✗ Lost
Value
Under 2.5 Goals
Pre-match: 53%
✗ Lost
Dark Horse
Draw
Pre-match: 24%
✗ Lost

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