> MATCH.PREDICT()·USA: MLS·Sunday 24 May, 00:30 UTC
Sporting Kansas City vs Red Bull New York
Bawler runs a Poisson model on rolling xG, normalised across leagues, adjusted for venue and injuries. This page shows the full chain — every number you can see is one we used.
Why the model calls it this way
Red Bull's 1.89 xG dominance over Sporting's 1.65 with 41% win probability makes RBNY the decisive edge despite modest odds.
Win probability
31.9% home26.7% draw41.4% away
xG chain — base → adjustments → final λ
Sporting Kansas CitystepRed Bull New York
1.53Base xG · rolling 26-match1.96
× 1.08Home advantage · Home× 0.96
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
1.65Final λ — what the Poisson uses1.89
Scoreline distribution · P(score) %bivariate Poisson
0
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6
0
3
5
5
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1
1
5
9
9
5
3
1
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7
7
4
2
1
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4
2
1
4
1
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2
1
5
1
1
6
home windrawaway win
> More predictions for these teams
⚡ Full-time recap available
Sporting Kansas City 1–2 Red Bull New York
See how the model called it · pick-by-pick verdict · xG vs actual →
Statistical analysis for entertainment · Not betting advice · Model estimates, not guaranteed outcomes · 18+