FT · USA: MLS · Sunday, 24 May 2026
Sporting Kansas City 1–2 Red Bull New YorkMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Sunday, 24 May 2026
> Model verdict
✓ Model called it
Pre-match, Bawler had Sporting Kansas City at 32%, draw at 27%, Red Bull New York at 41%. The match ended 1-2 — confirming the model's lean toward Red Bull New York.
> Pre-match probability vs result
City win
32%
Draw
27%
York win
41%
Actual ✓
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.65 – 1.89
Total 3.54
Actual
1 – 2
Total 3 (-0.5 vs xG)
Total goals landed close to the model's expectation — within 0.5 of forecast. Suggests this match played to the underlying xG balance.
> Bawler's picks · how they landed
Banker
Over 1.5 Goals
Pre-match: 83%
✓ Won
Value
1X
Pre-match: 50%
✗ Lost
Dark Horse
Draw
Pre-match: 24%
✗ Lost
> What we said pre-match
"Red Bull's 1.89 xG dominance over Sporting's 1.65 with 41% win probability makes RBNY the decisive edge despite modest odds."