> MATCH.PREDICT()·England: Premier League·Sunday 24 May, 15:00 UTC
Sunderland vs Chelsea
Bawler runs a Poisson model on rolling xG, normalised across leagues, adjusted for venue and injuries. This page shows the full chain — every number you can see is one we used.
Why the model calls it this way
Chelsea's Champions League desperation and superior xG (1.49 vs 1.25) justify backing Away Win value at 54% probability despite Sunderland's home advantage.
▲End-of-season stakes
Home
Sunderland
Nothing to play for
10th · 1 left
Model nudged xG by −5% for motivation
Away
Chelsea
Nothing to play for
8th · 1 left
Model nudged xG by −5% for motivation
Win probability
29.1% home31.3% draw39.6% away
xG chain — base → adjustments → final λ
SunderlandstepChelsea
1.16Base xG · rolling 26-match1.55
× 1.08Home advantage · Home× 0.96
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
1.25Final λ — what the Poisson uses1.49
Scoreline distribution · P(score) %bivariate Poisson
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0
6
10
7
4
1
1
8
12
9
4
2
2
5
8
6
3
1
3
2
3
2
1
4
1
1
1
5
6
home windrawaway win
> More predictions for these teams
⚡ Full-time recap available
Sunderland 2–1 Chelsea
See how the model called it · pick-by-pick verdict · xG vs actual →
Statistical analysis for entertainment · Not betting advice · Model estimates, not guaranteed outcomes · 18+