FT · England: Premier League · Sunday, 24 May 2026
Sunderland 2–1 ChelseaMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Sunday, 24 May 2026
> Model verdict
✗ Result against the lean
Pre-match, Bawler had Sunderland at 29%, draw at 31%, Chelsea at 40%. Against expectation, the match finished 2-1. The model's headline call was Chelsea to win.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Sunderland win
29%
Actual ✓
Draw
31%
Chelsea win
40%
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.25 – 1.49
Total 2.74
Actual
2 – 1
Total 3 (+0.3 vs xG)
Total goals landed close to the model's expectation — within 0.3 of forecast. Suggests this match played to the underlying xG balance.
> Bawler's picks · how they landed
Banker
X2
Pre-match: 84%
✗ Lost
Value
Away Win
Pre-match: 54%
✗ Lost
Dark Horse
Over 3.5 Goals
Pre-match: 28%
✗ Lost
Bawl Out✓ Cashed@ 3.39x
- Over 1.5 Goals✓
- 1X✓
- Under 10.5 Corners✓
> What we said pre-match
"Chelsea's Champions League desperation and superior xG (1.49 vs 1.25) justify backing Away Win value at 54% probability despite Sunderland's home advantage."