> MATCH.PREDICT()·England: Premier League·Saturday 09 May, 14:00 UTC
Sunderland vs Manchester United
Bawler runs a Poisson model on rolling xG, normalised across leagues, adjusted for venue and injuries. This page shows the full chain — every number you can see is one we used.
Win probability
27.0% home28.5% draw44.5% away
xG chain — base → adjustments → final λ
SunderlandstepManchester United
1.25Base xG · rolling 26-match1.84
× 1.08Home advantage · Home× 0.96
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
1.35Final λ — what the Poisson uses1.77
Scoreline distribution · P(score) %bivariate Poisson
0
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0
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8
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4
2
1
1
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11
9
6
2
1
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4
7
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4
2
1
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3
2
1
4
1
1
1
1
5
6
home windrawaway win
BAWL OUTPro
X2 + Over 1.5 Goals + Over 22.5 Shots + Over 8.5 Corners
Model 30.3% · @ 3.30x
Take this pick →> More predictions for these teams
⚡ Full-time recap available
Sunderland 0–0 Manchester United
See how the model called it · pick-by-pick verdict · xG vs actual →
Statistical analysis for entertainment · Not betting advice · Model estimates, not guaranteed outcomes · 18+