FT · England: Premier League · Saturday, 09 May 2026
Sunderland 0–0 Manchester UnitedMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Saturday, 09 May 2026
> Model verdict
✗ Result against the lean
Pre-match, Bawler had Sunderland at 27%, draw at 28%, Manchester United at 45%. Against expectation, the match finished 0-0. The model's headline call was Manchester United to win.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Sunderland win
27%
Draw
28%
Actual ✓
United win
45%
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.35 – 1.77
Total 3.13
Actual
0 – 0
Total 0 (-3.1 vs xG)
Match underperformed xG by 3.1 goals. Below-expectation scoring — could be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping, or low-quality chances the model over-rated.
> Bawler's picks · how they landed
Banker
X2
Pre-match: 82%
✓ Won
Value
1X
Pre-match: 54%
✓ Won
Dark Horse
Draw
Pre-match: 27%
✓ Won
Bawl Out✗ Lost@ 3.30x
- X2✓
- Over 1.5 Goals✗
- Over 22.5 Shots✓
- Over 8.5 Corners✓