> MATCH.PREDICT()·France: Ligue 1·Sunday 10 May, 19:00 UTC
Toulouse vs Lyon
Bawler runs a Poisson model on rolling xG, normalised across leagues, adjusted for venue and injuries. This page shows the full chain — every number you can see is one we used.
Win probability
38.7% home27.8% draw33.5% away
xG chain — base → adjustments → final λ
ToulousestepLyon
1.61Base xG · rolling 26-match1.67
× 1.08Home advantage · Home× 0.96
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
1.74Final λ — what the Poisson uses1.61
Scoreline distribution · P(score) %bivariate Poisson
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0
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1
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10
8
4
2
1
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9
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1
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3
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2
1
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1
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2
1
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1
1
6
home windrawaway win
BAWL OUTPro
Over 8.5 Corners + Over 22.5 Shots + Over 1.5 Goals + X2
Model 33.5% · @ 2.98x
Take this pick →> More predictions for these teams
⚡ Full-time recap available
Toulouse 2–1 Lyon
See how the model called it · pick-by-pick verdict · xG vs actual →
Statistical analysis for entertainment · Not betting advice · Model estimates, not guaranteed outcomes · 18+