Bawler / France: Ligue 1 / Toulouse
Team profile

Toulouse Prediction

Per-game numbers from 34 competitive matches · updated 16 August 2026

Shots
12.5
a game
11.9 faced
On target
4.2
a game
3.9 faced
Goals
1.4 – 1.4
scored – conceded
a game, 34 matches
Next match
33%
Toulouse win chance
vs Lyon · Sat 22 Aug 18:45

Toulouse prediction: for Toulouse's next match — Toulouse vs Lyon on Saturday 22 Aug, 18:45 UTC — Bawler's model makes it Lyon are favoured (39%).

Toulouse sit close to the Ligue 1 average on both sides of the ball, creating 1.36 expected goals a game and conceding 1.58. Next up is Lyon, where the model makes this close to a coin toss at 33%.

Toulouse in numbers

34 competitive matches · friendlies excluded
1.4
Goals · per game
let in 1.4
Home 1.5Away 1.3
4.4
Corners · per game
give up 5.0
Home 5.1Away 3.7
12.5
Shots · per game
faced 11.9
Home 14.7Away 10.3
4.2
On target · per game
faced 3.9
Home 4.8Away 3.6
Last 6 games
17 May
0-0
@ Nantes
2-2
10 May
2-1
vs Lyon
7-8
03 May
2-1
@ Strasbourg
3-8
25 Apr
2-2
vs Monaco
4-2
17 Apr
2-3
@ Lens
1-14
12 Apr
0-4
vs Lille
4-2

Real counted numbers, updated daily · see them working on today's predictions →

Next match

Home vs Lyon · Saturday 22 Aug, 18:45 UTC

Win
33%
Toulouse
Draw
28%
Loss
39%
Lyon
Full match preview

Attack vs defence

How Toulouse compare with the France: Ligue 1 average, per match.

Goals for
1.36
Below average
Goals against
1.58
Leakier than most
Record
2W 1D 2L
5 settled
Real goals
1.2 – 1.4
For / against, per match
Scored1.36
Conceded1.58

The grey line on each bar is the France: Ligue 1 average (1.58 scored, 1.45 conceded).

What the data says
Misfiring in attack
Averaging 1.36 xG per match · -0.22 above the France: Ligue 1 average of 1.58.

How Bawler has done on Toulouse

80%
of high-confidence calls correct — 4 of 5, well above the ~65% baseline
Goals (Over/Under)67%2/3
Result100%2/2

Each row is one market type. Every prediction logged before kickoff, settled publicly.

Recent matches (last 5)

Sun 17 May@ Nantes
High confidence: X2
Sun 10 Mayvs Lyon
High confidence: Over 1.5 Goals
Fri 17 Apr@ Lens
High confidence: Over 1.5 Goals
Fri 03 Apr@ PSG
High confidence: 1X
Sat 21 Marvs Lorient
High confidence: Over 1.5 Goals

Transfer activity

INChrist TapéCBfrom AC Horsens€2.5m
INSion OppongLWfrom BrommapojkarnaUndisclosed
INIsmail DialloRBfrom DijonFree transfer
OUTEmersonnSTto Ipswich Town€28m
OUTCharlie CresswellCBto RennesLoan
OUTWarren KamanziRMto Malmö FFFree transfer
OUTIbrahim CissokoLWto PEC ZwolleUndisclosed
OUTEdhy ZulianiSTto VVV-VenloUndisclosed
OUTKjetil HaugGKto Go Ahead EaglesFree transfer
OUTÁlex DominguezGKto PonferradinaFree transfer
OUTSaïd HamulicSTto Wisła PłockFree transfer

Confirmed deals only. All transfers and what they mean for our predictions →

More on Toulouse and the model

Model estimates from rolling expected goals · every prediction logged before kickoff and settled publicly