FT · France: Ligue 1 · Sunday, 10 May 2026
Toulouse 2–1 LyonMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Sunday, 10 May 2026
> Model verdict
✓ Model called it
Pre-match, Bawler had Toulouse at 39%, draw at 28%, Lyon at 33%. The match ended 2-1 — confirming the model's lean toward Toulouse.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Toulouse win
39%
Actual ✓
Draw
28%
Lyon win
33%
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.74 – 1.61
Total 3.35
Actual
2 – 1
Total 3 (-0.3 vs xG)
Total goals landed close to the model's expectation — within 0.3 of forecast. Suggests this match played to the underlying xG balance.
> Bawler's picks · how they landed
Banker
Over 1.5 Goals
Pre-match: 78%
✓ Won
Value
Home Win
Pre-match: 40%
✓ Won
Dark Horse
Draw
Pre-match: 27%
✗ Lost
Bawl Out✗ Lost@ 2.98x
- Over 8.5 Corners✓
- Over 22.5 Shots✓
- Over 1.5 Goals✓
- X2✗