> MATCH.PREDICT()·Belgium: Pro League·Sunday 24 May, 16:30 UTC
Union St.-Gilloise vs Anderlecht
Bawler runs a Poisson model on rolling xG, normalised across leagues, adjusted for venue and injuries. This page shows the full chain — every number you can see is one we used.
Why the model calls it this way
Union's 0.86 xG advantage as league leaders versus mid-table Anderlecht makes Over 1.5 Goals the dominant play at 84% probability.
Win probability
54.4% home24.2% draw21.4% away
xG chain — base → adjustments → final λ
Union St.-GilloisestepAnderlecht
2.09Base xG · rolling 26-match1.45
× 1.08Home advantage · Home× 0.96
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
2.25Final λ — what the Poisson uses1.39
Scoreline distribution · P(score) %bivariate Poisson
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home windrawaway win
> More predictions for these teams
⚡ Full-time recap available
Union St.-Gilloise 5–1 Anderlecht
See how the model called it · pick-by-pick verdict · xG vs actual →
Statistical analysis for entertainment · Not betting advice · Model estimates, not guaranteed outcomes · 18+