FT · Belgium: Pro League · Sunday, 24 May 2026
Union St.-Gilloise 5–1 AnderlechtMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Sunday, 24 May 2026
> Model verdict
✓ Model called it
Pre-match, Bawler had Union St.-Gilloise at 54%, draw at 24%, Anderlecht at 21%. The match ended 5-1 — confirming the model's lean toward Union St.-Gilloise.
> Pre-match probability vs result
St.-Gilloise win
54%
Actual ✓
Draw
24%
Anderlecht win
21%
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
2.25 – 1.39
Total 3.65
Actual
5 – 1
Total 6 (+2.4 vs xG)
Match overperformed xG by 2.4 goals. Above-expectation scoring — could be finishing, set-piece luck, or genuine attacking quality the model under-rated.
> Bawler's picks · how they landed
Banker
Over 1.5 Goals
Pre-match: 84%
✓ Won
Value
Over 3.5 Goals
Pre-match: 49%
✓ Won
Dark Horse
Away Win
Pre-match: 27%
✗ Lost
> What we said pre-match
"Union's 0.86 xG advantage as league leaders versus mid-table Anderlecht makes Over 1.5 Goals the dominant play at 84% probability."