> MATCH.PREDICT()·Belgium: Pro League·Sunday 10 May, 16:30 UTC
Union St.-Gilloise vs KV Mechelen
Bawler runs a Poisson model on rolling xG, normalised across leagues, adjusted for venue and injuries. This page shows the full chain — every number you can see is one we used.
Win probability
60.6% home23.4% draw16.1% away
xG chain — base → adjustments → final λ
Union St.-GilloisestepKV Mechelen
2.12Base xG · rolling 26-match1.18
× 1.08Home advantage · Home× 0.96
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
2.29Final λ — what the Poisson uses1.14
Scoreline distribution · P(score) %bivariate Poisson
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0
3
4
2
1
1
7
8
5
2
1
2
9
10
6
2
1
3
6
7
4
2
4
4
4
2
1
5
2
2
1
6
1
1
home windrawaway win
> More predictions for these teams
⚡ Full-time recap available
Union St.-Gilloise 3–0 KV Mechelen
See how the model called it · pick-by-pick verdict · xG vs actual →
Statistical analysis for entertainment · Not betting advice · Model estimates, not guaranteed outcomes · 18+