FT · Belgium: Pro League · Sunday, 10 May 2026
Union St.-Gilloise 3–0 KV MechelenMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Sunday, 10 May 2026
> Model verdict
✓ Model called it
Pre-match, Bawler had Union St.-Gilloise at 61%, draw at 23%, KV Mechelen at 16%. The match ended 3-0 — confirming the model's lean toward Union St.-Gilloise.
> Pre-match probability vs result
St.-Gilloise win
61%
Actual ✓
Draw
23%
Mechelen win
16%
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
2.29 – 1.14
Total 3.43
Actual
3 – 0
Total 3 (-0.4 vs xG)
Total goals landed close to the model's expectation — within 0.4 of forecast. Suggests this match played to the underlying xG balance.
> Bawler's picks · how they landed
Banker
1X
Pre-match: 81%
✓ Won
Value
X2
Pre-match: 44%
✗ Lost
Dark Horse
Draw
Pre-match: 23%
✗ Lost
Bawl Out✗ Lost@ 2.02x
- 1X✓
- Over 1.5 Goals✓
- Over 9.5 Corners✗